Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: Interest rates will rise

Said on Mar 22, 2021, at 11:23 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“My thinking is that most likely we will end up seeing higher inflation, we'll see slightly higher interest rates, and that will have an impact on the real estate and stock market.”
Watch at 11:23The Stock Market Is About To Snap
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.25%

Mar 22, 2021

Reading at close

0.5%

Mar 22, 2022

Change

+0.25 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.50% on Mar 22, 2022, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201820192019202020212022Said on Mar 22, 2021
0%1%2%3%2018201920212022Said on Mar 22, 2021

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Apr 21, 20210.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Jun 20, 20210.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Sep 18, 20210.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.25%0.5%Mar 22, 2022+0.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%5.5%Mar 21, 2024+5.25 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%3.75%Mar 21, 2026+3.50 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Apr 21, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jun 20, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Sep 18, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.50% on Mar 22, 2022, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 21, 2024, a net change of +5.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 21, 2026, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

still. It tends to swing too far in one direction of optimism and euphoria, and then we swing too far in the other direction of fear and panic. What's going on right now is really no different. Bond yields are worrying investors, and perhaps there's an overreaction that inflation is soon going to be out of control. But whether or not that's actually the case is yet to be seen, and because inflation data comes out every month, it's likely going to take us through summer to figure out what's actually going on. My thinking is that most likely we will end up seeing higher inflation, we'll see slightly higher interest rates, and that will have an impact on the real estate and stock market. However, once true inflation data starts coming out and getting more consistent, I think everything will begin to return back to normal and things will move along. It's only scary right now because it's the unknown. We have no way of truly figuring out how high inflation will be or how high interest rates will go or exactly what impact that's going to have. So usually in times of uncertainty, we price in the worst possible case scenario. And whether or not that scenario actually plays out is a whole 'nother

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable