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Graham Stephan: Interest rates will rise

Said on Dec 6, 2023, at 13:58 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I tend to believe that interest rates are going to stay higher than most people think I think they're going to stay higher for longer than most people think”
Watch at 13:58It’s Here: The Reverse Housing Crash Of 2024
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5.5%

Dec 6, 2023

Reading at close

4.75%

Dec 5, 2024

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 5, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Dec 6, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Dec 6, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jan 5, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Mar 5, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jun 3, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%4.75%Dec 5, 2024−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 5, 2026——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 4, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 5, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 5, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 3, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 5, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 5, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 4, 2028.

What was said around it

seeing the returns are way too low commercial real estate has barely even budged given that treasuries are already yielding about 5% and I'm just in line with a lot of other investors holding cash on the sidelines taking a wait and see approach just to see what happens personally I tend to think that a lot of these real estate predictions are just random guesses and inevitably a few of them are going to be right but if you're going to ask me for my guess on what I think is going to happen for what whatever that's worth I tend to believe that interest rates are going to stay higher than most people think I think they're going to stay higher for longer than most people think and over the next few years the housing market should begin to normalize but it might be a very slow process so on that note let me know what you guys think of this down below in the comment section I will do my best to read as many of your comments as possible and reply to the ones that I could get to so let me know what you think also make sure to hit the like button subscribe and don't forget that you can get some free stocks worth all the way up to a few thousand when you make a deposit using my paid affiliate link

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable