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Graham Stephan: Interest rates will fall

Said on Jun 28, 2019, at 3:08 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“it wouldn't be surprised when other banks just slowly start to follow suit within the next few weeks”
Watch at 3:08Why I’m leaving Ally Bank
PredictionInterest rateswill fallby Jul 19, 2019
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

2.5%

Jun 28, 2019

Reading at close

0.25%

Jun 27, 2020

Change

−2.25 pp

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jun 27, 2020, a net change of −2.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201620172018201920192020Said on Jun 28, 2019
0%1%2%3%2016201720192020Said on Jun 28, 2019

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect2.5%2.5%Jul 28, 20190.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct2.5%2%Sep 26, 2019−0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct2.5%1.75%Dec 25, 2019−0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct2.5%0.25%Jun 27, 2020−2.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct2.5%1.75%Jun 27, 2022−0.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct2.5%5.5%Jun 26, 2024+3.00 pp—
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Incorrect2.5%2.5%Jul 19, 20190.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Jul 28, 2019, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 2.00% on Sep 26, 2019, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Dec 25, 2019, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jun 27, 2020, a net change of −2.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jun 27, 2022, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 26, 2024, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Jul 19, 2019, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

you a 2.2 percent interest rate and they still end up making a profit however today we can see that the Treasury yield has dropped in anticipation of the Fed potentially lowering interest rates even further and that means that many of these banks can no longer afford to pay the interest rates that they once were and like I said this is not just isolated to one bank or one company even marcus by goldman sachs had just recently announced this morning that they're lowering their interest rate from 2.25 percent down to two point one five percent and it wouldn't be surprised when other banks just slowly start to follow suit within the next few weeks now second it's very important to understand that the yield you get on a high interest savings account is going to fluctuate over time none of these rates are set in stone and a bank can choose to raise or lower these interest rates at any point in time at their sole discretion now banks won't normally just lower interest rates to try to be cheap or to try to like scam you out of any sort of money or anything like that but banks are a business and in order to be a business that stays afloat they do need to make money and they need to make a profit

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable