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Andrei Jikh: Interest rates will fall

Said on Feb 6, 2025, at 15:39 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“the us could be heading toward a long-term period of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar high growth similar to what happened after the original Plaza Accord”
Watch at 15:39America's Trade War Explained (And How It Affects YOU)
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.5%

Feb 6, 2025

Reading at close

3.75%

Feb 6, 2026

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Feb 6, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202220222023202420252026Said on Feb 6, 2025
−2%0%2%4%6%2022202320242026Said on Feb 6, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%Mar 8, 20250.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%May 7, 20250.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%Aug 5, 20250.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Feb 6, 2026−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 6, 2028——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 5, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Mar 8, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 7, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Aug 5, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Feb 6, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 6, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 5, 2030.

What was said around it

look for Alternatives that hold their value over time that's what I think the smart investors see I think that's a really interesting Theory now the real big takeaway is that on a personal level cash is probably going to lose purchasing power in this scenario investors who sit on too much cash while the dollar weakens could see their Sav eroded possibly by inflation but definitely by asset values going higher if this Theory plays out we're looking at a future where the financial system changes in a really big way the us could be heading toward a long-term period of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar high growth similar to what happened after the original Plaza Accord and if that happens the biggest winners will be those who hold assets but anyone who relies on things like fix income savings or an income that doesn't keep up with inflation will unfortunately be left behind but all this is of course allegedly for entertainment purposes only if you found this breakdown helpful smash the like button subscribe if you haven't already I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day I'd love to see you back next week I'll see you soon bye-bye

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable