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Andrei Jikh: Interest rates will fall

Said on Oct 9, 2023, at 7:14 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“But eventually, we will go back to the historical average of inventory levels and interest rates will also eventually come down.”
Watch at 7:14Why This Might Be The Best (Or Worst) Time to Buy a House!
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Oct 9, 2023

Reading at close

5%

Oct 8, 2024

Change

−0.50 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Oct 8, 2024, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Oct 9, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Oct 9, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Nov 8, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jan 7, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Apr 6, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%5%Oct 8, 2024−0.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct5.5%4%Oct 8, 2026−1.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Oct 7, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Nov 8, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 7, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Apr 6, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Oct 8, 2024, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Oct 8, 2026, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 175 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 7, 2028.

What was said around it

I'm just getting older, but $400,000 for that is not normal for a transient town like Las Vegas. So, the demand for buying a house has slowed, but so has the supply. And now we're at a standstill between buyers and sellers and the price really isn't moving. And if it does, it's just slowly going up. So, the question is, is it better to just wait? Here's a couple reasons why you might want to wait to buy a house. This year, exactly 36.3% of homes sold over list price. Now, that's a lot considering how high interest rates still are. But eventually, we will go back to the historical average of inventory levels and interest rates will also eventually come down. And according to the Fed's latest prediction and everything they've leaked to us so far, the rates should be coming down sometime in 2024. And that means more people will want to sell and therefore higher inventory. But I wouldn't expect a crash like some people predict because there's a lot of people waiting on the sidelines to buy a a Now, reason number two to wait is if you believe in following the money when people with a multi-million dollar net worth were asked about what they thought about real estate, they said, "Quote, they're

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

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Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

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“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

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“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

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“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable