Graham Stephan: Interest rates will fall

Said on Mar 18, 2020, at 7:06 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“even though a lot of these rates are probably going to end up going down soon, at the very least, you could rest assured that your money is going to stay safe,”
Watch at 7:06What EVERYONE Needs To Do With Their Money ASAP
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

0.25%

Mar 18, 2020

Reading at close

0.25%

Mar 18, 2021

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Mar 18, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201720182018201920202021Said on Mar 18, 2020
0%1%2%3%2017201820202021Said on Mar 18, 2020

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Apr 17, 20200.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Jun 16, 20200.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Sep 14, 20200.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Mar 18, 20210.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%4.75%Mar 18, 2023+4.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%4.5%Mar 17, 2025+4.25 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Apr 17, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jun 16, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Sep 14, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Mar 18, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Mar 18, 2023, a net change of +4.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Mar 17, 2025, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

that you could go to, but in terms of customer service and actually reaching a live human being on the phone, no place that I have ever used has beat Ally Bank. I've even had seven figures in cash sitting in other banks doing their whole private banking experience, and their customer service is worse than what I get at Ally Bank with, let's say, 10,000 in the account. So, even though you might end up making a little bit less in interest, the whole experience of Ally Bank, in my opinion, more than makes up for it. Now, even though a lot of these rates are probably going to end up going down soon, at the very least, you could rest assured that your money is going to stay safe, and it's not going to be prone to any fluctuations in market price. And you're also going to make a little bit of interest during the time that you have your money sitting there. The second, in addition to this, if you want a slightly better return and don't need access to your money immediately, you can also look into a CD, which stands for certificate of deposit. It's basically just a savings account with a fixed date of withdrawal. And most CDs that you'll see have terms of 1 to 5 years, which means you'll lock

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