Coin Bureau: Interest rates will rise

Said on Aug 29, 2023, at 7:45 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“from a technical perspective it looks like longer term interest rates are about to rise even higher and accelerated balance sheet shrinkage could be the catalyst”
Watch at 7:45Market CRASH? MORE Inflation? Jackson Hole & What It Means!!
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a bond, Treasury, mortgage or savings rate that this rule does not measure.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242024Said on Aug 29, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232024Said on Aug 29, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-FED v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a bond, Treasury, mortgage or savings rate that this rule does not measure.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a bond, Treasury, mortgage or savings rate that this rule does not measure.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a bond, Treasury, mortgage or savings rate that this rule does not measure.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a bond, Treasury, mortgage or savings rate that this rule does not measure.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a bond, Treasury, mortgage or savings rate that this rule does not measure.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. Reviewed: the call is about a bond, Treasury, mortgage or savings rate that this rule does not measure.

What was said around it

Autumn and the comments from Jerome's speech this year for Reference last September the FED started shrinking its balance sheet to the tune of 95 billion dollars per month this has the Practical effect of raising interest rates particularly longer term interest rates this effect was dampened by the banking crisis in March when the Fed was forced to stimulate a bit again since March however the fed's balance sheet has been falling again and this has been contributing to the recent rise in longer-term interest rates from a technical perspective it looks like longer term interest rates are about to rise even higher and accelerated balance sheet shrinkage could be the catalyst there is some evidence for this in Jerome's comments he specified that the FED had reduced its balance sheet significantly over the last year and that there would be quote further drags in the pipeline this could be a reference to the FED planning on accelerating its balance sheet runoff in the near future as we've seen over the last few weeks a rise in longer term interest rates tends to push markets down this is probably because raising longer-term interest rates does more damage to the actual economy one example

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all