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Graham Stephan: Interest rates will rise

Said on Jan 14, 2019, at 7:21 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I have a feeling that's gonna be going up over the next maybe month or so as interest rates go up that is going to go up as well”
Watch at 7:21HOW TO PROFIT CHURNING BANK ACCOUNTS IN 2019
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

2.5%

Jan 14, 2019

Reading at close

1.75%

Jan 14, 2020

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jan 14, 2020, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201620162017201820192020Said on Jan 14, 2019
0%1%2%3%2016201720182020Said on Jan 14, 2019

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect2.5%2.5%Feb 13, 20190.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect2.5%2.5%Apr 14, 20190.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect2.5%2.5%Jul 13, 20190.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect2.5%1.75%Jan 14, 2020−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Incorrect2.5%0.25%Jan 13, 2022−2.25 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct2.5%5.5%Jan 13, 2024+3.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Feb 13, 2019, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Apr 14, 2019, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Jul 13, 2019, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jan 14, 2020, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jan 13, 2022, a net change of −2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 2.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 13, 2024, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

there okay so now the next one is just a pretty simple and pretty decent offer and they're just all around a pretty good bank account but that would be the Capital One 360 account with just a few minutes worth of work and Oh a ten thousand dollar deposit you'll receive a two hundred dollar bonus within sixty days now the reason why this offer is so good is that Capital One 360 is one of the highest interest rates out there in the savings account when you deposit more than ten thousand dollars in there and that right now is at 2% and I have a feeling that's gonna be going up over the next maybe month or so as interest rates go up that is going to go up as well and also this account is free of all fees which is absolutely amazing so this means if you take your $200 profit and pull out all of your $10,000 you're not gonna be stuck keeping any sort of minimum balance in there or being stuck paying any fees it's a completely free account and this also means that you just made another two hundred dollars with really just a few minutes worth of work okay so the next one is another Bank that I talked about recently is really being one of the best savings accounts out there because they had what

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

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Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

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Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

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“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable