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Graham Stephan: Interest rates will rise

Said on Dec 31, 2021, at 11:09 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“interest rates are likely to begin climbing,”
Watch at 11:09The 6 BEST Investments To 10X In 2022
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.25%

Dec 31, 2021

Reading at close

4.5%

Dec 31, 2022

Change

+4.25 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2022, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%201920192020202120222023Said on Dec 31, 2021
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020212023Said on Dec 31, 2021

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Jan 30, 20220.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct0.25%0.5%Mar 31, 2022+0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct0.25%1.75%Jun 29, 2022+1.50 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.25%4.5%Dec 31, 2022+4.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%4.5%Dec 30, 2024+4.25 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 30, 2026——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jan 30, 2022, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.50% on Mar 31, 2022, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jun 29, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2022, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 30, 2024, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 30, 2026.

What was said around it

for the right buyer at the right time. So in the event you need cash immediately, the choice is either to sell it at such a rock-bottom price to someone who wants a deal or you have to wait. For that reason, I don't recommend investing more than 5% of your net worth in collectible assets just in case something happens and you need the money. But if you know what you're doing or you have the money to buy the 6-speed Ferrari, you could end up doing quite well long-term. And finally, six, we got real estate. Now yes, it is true that prices have gone up 18.4% year-over-year, interest rates are likely to begin climbing, and inventory is at a record low. Although it is still possible to buy a home as a good investment and this is where I plan to invest most of my money throughout the next year. First, everybody needs a place to live. Housing is something that a company can't just go and magically replace one day. It can't be outsourced and it can't be made cheaper online. The reality is all of us need a home and if we're not renting, we're buying. So, the market is literally everybody. The second, a bank will lend you most of the money that you need to buy the house as long as you could come

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“in my opinion, the big move to really watch out for is whether or not the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds or hits 5%.”

Sep 3, 2026

Not scored

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable