Andrei Jikh: Interest rates will rise

Said on Sep 26, 2022, at 11:03 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“the FED aka the central bank is expected to start selling off their bond portfolio very very soon and they have a massive Bond portfolio so once they start selling what happens to bond prices they start falling even more which means interest rates will shoot up that much more”
Watch at 11:03It Started: The Lost Decade | Bonds Just Crashed
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%201920202021202120222023Said on Sep 26, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on Sep 26, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-FED v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

What was said around it

Capital they need liquidity they need to enter and exit very very fast but remember if you sell your bonds before maturity date there's a chance that it's going to be worth a lot less so if I'm an investor and I'm trying to put a valuation on a company I would not value it very high if I knew that a lot of that company's assets or money is held in a collapsing asset like the bond market that's another reason why the stock market's falling another reason is because the FED aka the central bank is expected to start selling off their bond portfolio very very soon and they have a massive Bond portfolio so once they start selling what happens to bond prices they start falling even more which means interest rates will shoot up that much more so all I'm trying to say is that the juicier the bond market gets as a result of bond prices falling the more rotten the stock market looks by comparison I know I threw a ton at you but I hope now you understand the difference between stocks and bonds and how all of them are interconnected now if you've made it this far let me give you my personal thoughts on whether it's a good idea to sell your stocks and start buying bonds instead now this is not Financial

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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