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Graham Stephan: Interest rates will rise

Said on Oct 26, 2020, at 9:28 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“long term we could begin seeing savings accounts start to pay a little bit more interest like we did in the past”
Watch at 9:28My Thoughts On The Stock Market Collapse
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

0.25%

Oct 26, 2020

Reading at close

0.25%

Oct 26, 2021

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Oct 26, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201720182019202020212022Said on Oct 26, 2020
0%1%2%3%2017201920202022Said on Oct 26, 2020

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Nov 25, 20200.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Jan 24, 20210.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Apr 24, 20210.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Oct 26, 20210.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%5.5%Oct 26, 2023+5.25 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%4.25%Oct 25, 2025+4.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Nov 25, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Jan 24, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Apr 24, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Oct 26, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Oct 26, 2023, a net change of +5.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Oct 25, 2025, a net change of +4.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

shutdown the likelihood of mortgage rates dropping any lower than they currently are is rather unlikely and if i were to guess i would say that we're most likely to see interest rates begin going up especially if another stimulus is passed but don't worry quite yet because mortgage rates are still at their all-time record lows so in terms of locking in a refinance or a mortgage you're still not too late to do so but i wouldn't recommend waiting for too much longer if you're looking to refinance or lock in an interest rate now on top of that long term we could begin seeing savings accounts start to pay a little bit more interest like we did in the past although like i said it's still probably a little bit too early to tell and we would need to see these interest rates sustained for a longer period of time for them to begin translating over to a savings account overall though here's what you need to do about this just focus on what you can control obviously go out and vote so your voice is heard that's an easy one but besides that volatility like this is going to be normal over the next few weeks to next few months and it's really up to you to have an understanding of what this means for

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

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Sep 3, 2026

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“That is partially why interest rates are expected to go up here in the US.”

Jul 28, 2026 · after 1 year

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Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“Either way, it looks like yields are going to go up.”

Jun 5, 2026 · after 1 year

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Graham StephanInterest rates— no direction stated

“the government's just going to print more money while keeping interest rates as low as they possibly can.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

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Graham Stephan, relaying Congressional Budget Office: Interest rates will rise

“the Congressional Budget Office now projects interest will reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036,”

Jun 1, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhInterest rateswill rise

“But it is especially bad when the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable