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Joseph Carlson: Interest rates will fall

Said on Nov 30, 2023, at 25:43 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I believe the odds are in the favor of interest rates going down instead of going up I think the odds are somewhere around 80% that they're going to go down about 20% that they're going to go up”
Watch at 25:43Elon Musk Goes To War With Disney
PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Nov 30, 2023

Reading at close

4.75%

Nov 29, 2024

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Nov 29, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Nov 30, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Nov 30, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Dec 30, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Feb 28, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%May 28, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.75%Nov 29, 2024−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Nov 29, 2026——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Nov 28, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 30, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 28, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on May 28, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Nov 29, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 29, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 28, 2028.

What was said around it

some secondary impact on companies like Inuit with small businesses or spending in the overall economy with MasterCard but overall these companies are incredibly resilient and they are more than used to differences in interest rates the biggest company in my portfolio that this would directly impact is in the real estate category V is a highly levered business and it's one that's very sensitive to interest rates the price of vichi has gone down as interest rates have gone up and like I've said before I believe the odds are in the favor of interest rates going down instead of going up I think the odds are somewhere around 80% that they're going to go down about 20% that they're going to go up so if I add a bet I I think there's more chance that interest rates go down like Bill Amman is predicting and I think that would positively impact vich stock price if interest rates go down that means that you're earning less money on your cash balances and money market accounts making higher yielding assets like vich more attractive on a relative basis a lowering of interest rates should directly benefit a company like fi so whether or not we have a rate cut the beginning of next year or mid next

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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