Coin Bureau: Interest rates will fall

Said on May 13, 2024, at 13:26 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the 10-year yield likewise appears to have broken down following a rising wedge pattern on the weekly this is more bullish than you might think because the 10-year yield appears to be inversely correlated to risk assets namely small cap stocks and altcoins”
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PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202320242025Said on May 13, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202220242025Said on May 13, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-FED v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

What was said around it

we're unlikely to see more geopolitical escalation in the middle e East or elsewhere as most of you will have noticed geopolitical escalation was weighing on the markets over the last few months particularly those for risk assets it seems these risks have dissipated or at least been priced in next up we have interest rates specifically the yield on 10-year US Government debt AKA 10year bonds AKA 10-year treasuries but we'll just call them bonds for the sake of Simplicity the 10-year yield likewise appears to have broken down following a rising wedge pattern on the weekly this is more bullish than you might think because the 10-year yield appears to be inversely correlated to risk assets namely small cap stocks and altcoins although the correlation seems to have broken down in recent weeks falling yields are bullish across the board and should provide a Tailwind for all assets the same is true for the dxy which seems to be rolling over on the daily chart but remains in an admittedly strong uptrend FYI the dxy is inversely correlated to almost every other asset which makes sense when markets crash people tend to flee into US dollars when markets rally well it's the opposite this is why the

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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