Graham Stephan: Interest rates will fall

Said on Nov 1, 2019, at 2:13 in the video.

What was saidNov 1, 2019

@grahamstephan

“every single one of your savings accounts is likely going to see an interest rate adjustment over the coming few days and you're going to see a decrease in what your cash is earning”

Watch at 2:13Robinhood just sent me this..

PredictionInterest rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

1.75%

Nov 1, 2019

Reading at close

0.25%

Oct 31, 2020

Change

−1.50 pp

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Oct 31, 2020, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-FED v4	Incorrect	1.75%	1.75%Dec 1, 2019	0.00 pp	—
90 daysR-FED v4	Incorrect	1.75%	1.75%Jan 30, 2020	0.00 pp	—
180 daysR-FED v4	Correct	1.75%	0.25%Apr 29, 2020	−1.50 pp	—
1 yearR-FED v4	Correct	1.75%	0.25%Oct 31, 2020	−1.50 pp	—
3 yearsR-FED v4	Correct	1.75%	3.25%Oct 31, 2022	+1.50 pp	—
5 yearsR-FED v4	Correct	1.75%	5%Oct 30, 2024	+3.25 pp	—

Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Dec 1, 2019, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jan 30, 2020, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Apr 29, 2020, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 31, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Oct 30, 2024, a net change of +3.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

rate the Fed Funds rate influences nearly every financial institution so a rate change directly impacts the rate we can offer through cash management on the bright side this also means that your rate would go up if the Federal Reserve announces an increase to the rate right is though the Fed is going to be raising their rates anytime soon am i right yeah all right now to be honest this is something I felt like we can all see coming and it's not just Robin who's affected by this let me make this very clear every single one of your savings accounts is likely going to see an interest rate adjustment over the coming few days and you're going to see a decrease in what your cash is earning unfortunately though I felt like this happened at a very delicate time for Robin Hood when them offering a two point zero five percent interest rate would give them a pretty clear advantage towards many of the other banks including Ally Bank which is currently paying a 1.8 percent interest rate Goldman Sachs currently paying a 1.9 percent interest rate PNC Bank currently paying a 2 percent interest rate and wealthfront coming in at two point zero seven percent interest now much of Robin Hood's advantage

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Jun 1, 2026 · after 1 year

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May 26, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

Result at every window

What was said around it

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