Andrei Jikh: Interest rates will rise

Said on Sep 26, 2022, at 6:39 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“we know that interest rates are going to go up which means future bond prices will continue to go down”
Watch at 6:39It Started: The Lost Decade | Bonds Just Crashed
PredictionInterest rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

Interest ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232024Said on Sep 26, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222024Said on Sep 26, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-FED v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names bond, Treasury or mortgage yields; this rule reads the Fed's policy rate only.

What was said around it

extremely popular especially among older people because they are a guaranteed way to make money especially because the US government has never defaulted on their loans which is why they're considered super safe unless of course you go with option number two option number two gives you the option to sell those bonds before they reach maturity date right that's because you want to make more money faster but the question is will that bond be worth more or would it be worth less the answer to that question depends on where interest rates are going and we know that interest rates are going to go up which means future bond prices will continue to go down and the market knows this because if we look at the CME fed watch tool on November 2nd it shows a 72.9 chance that rates will go up again between 0.5 and 0.75 percent now what is all that mean right that means if I'm somebody who's in the market to buy some bonds and I want to buy some bonds from you right now would I pay you 98.25 for your 4.2 Bond if I know that I just have to wait a little and I know the government is going to create another exact same copy of your bond for the same price but instead of 4.2 percent it's gonna pay me five percent

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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