Andrei Jikh: Interest rates will rise

The window it was checked over

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

some Japanese institutions have already started pulling back from foreign bonds, which includes buying US treasuries. As Japanese interest rates go up and the yen starts to get stronger, it gets more expensive to borrow. So instead of borrowing money, that money is just going to stay at home. And if that trend continues, the US could actually lose one of its biggest lenders. And that would mean huge borrowing costs here in the US for consumers and more pressure on the Fed and even more volatility in the bond market. And you could start to see a world where interest rates in the US actually go up, not because of inflation, but because creditors just don't show up to the auction. Even the Japanese finance minister said recently their US Treasury holdings could be used as leverage in trade talks. Now he then later was like just kidding. But it shows you that it's actually a real possibility. For now the Bank of Japan is under a lot of pressure. They have over 1.3 quadrillion yen or 260% of GDP. That means even a small increase in interest rates could have a huge consequence. If Japan's interest rate goes up by 1% for example, that alone would add about 13 trillion yen or 85 billion dollar

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