As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight counts 67 calls about a recession that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the NBER recession indicator on FRED. At one year: 0 correct, 21 incorrect, 5 still open. The other 41 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Own predictions
67
24 said it would happen · 1 said it would not
Correct / incorrect after 1 year
0 Correct 21 Incorrect
plus 0 partly correct and 0 within band. Every call counted, repeats included.
Still open
5
Windows not yet closed
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. Grey bands are recessions.
95 predictions in all, newest first: 67 own, 28 relaying someone else's forecast (not scored).
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”The window is still open. The result is due after Jun 17, 2028.
30 days
Pending
90 days
Pending
180 days
Pending
1 year
Pending
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”“This suggests that more states could soon face
economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is
likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”The window is still open. The result is due after Nov 3, 2027.
30 days
Pending
90 days
Pending
180 days
Pending
1 year
Pending
“This is welcome news that makes it less likely we'll see a recession this year.”The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
“some have interpreted this as a warning sign and speculate that Barkser's cash
hoarding has been preparing for some black swan event be it a US recession or some other great
misfortune that Buffett is expecting”Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“But the reality is that Japan could increase interest rates in your country, crash stock portfolios all over the world, and potentially even trigger the next global recession.”
May 27, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“it might send the us into a temporary short recession so that it forces the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates”
Apr 4, 2025
Graham StephanRecessionwill happen
“there's a solid chance that a recession officially starts this year”
Mar 19, 2025 · after 90 days
Coin Bureaua call under review
“taken together this suggests that the world is headed for another Global recession and it looks like this one could be much more brutal than the ones before”
Mar 16, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“it now looks like we could be back at square one major economies are weakening and the world appears to be slowly sliding into a recession”
Mar 16, 2025
Andrei Jikha call under review
“Social Security is projected to be fully insolvent within the next decade that means unless something changes benefits will automatically be cut by 20 to 25% across the board”
Mar 4, 2025
Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction
“I don't think we're technically in a recession but I do think we could get there quickly”
Sep 27, 2024
Coin BureauRecessionwill not happen
“the answer is probably no besides the fact that the FED isn't cutting rates into a crisis like it has in previous Cycles”
Sep 25, 2024 · after 180 days
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“economists say that it takes on average roughly 10 quarters after the first rate increase to put economies into a recession and right now we're on that 10th quarter which means the likelihood of us being in a recession is statistically higher”
Aug 19, 2024 · after 180 days
Coin Bureaua call under review
“as another not so fun fact a spike in commodity prices has historically been followed by a recession this means we could get both”
Aug 4, 2024
Coin Bureau, relaying another source: a call under review
“the bis sees two possible scenarios that could drag down the global economy the first is a Resurgence in inflation and the second is a hard Landing AKA a recession”
Aug 4, 2024
Coin BureauRecessionwill happen
“considering that it seems to have a 2 to fouryear lag then it could be another year before the recession sets in”
May 19, 2024 · after 1 year
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“if I had to pick one of these three camps today I'd be in the no Landing camp but that can change over time”
Apr 19, 2024
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“so far throughout history unemployment has never been able to sustain below 4% without hitting a recession permanent job losses are rising with more and more people being forced to take on second jobs and the yield curve is so inverted that the probability of a downturn could be unavoidable”
Dec 20, 2023
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“so anytime between June to October 2024 is when we'll feel the official effects on average of what these rate hikes are”
Oct 23, 2023
Andrei Jikha call under review
“so it means that on average it has taken us roughly 11 months after the FED stopped raising the federal fund rate to go into an official recession”
Oct 23, 2023
Coin BureauRecessionwill happen
“if history is any indication however it's not a question of if but when we'll see a recession the authors of this report seem to agree”
Oct 17, 2023 · after 1 year
Joseph CarlsonRecessionwill happen
“there is a good chance we could go into recession over the next year”
Sep 19, 2023 · after 1 year
Andrei Jikh, relaying Larry Summers: a call with no clear direction
“Larry Summers the former treasury secretary is warning us that we could still end up in a recession and we might not get that soft Landing because of jobs”
Jul 14, 2023
Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction
“there is a probability in fact it may be a high probability that we enter into a recession over the next 12 months”
Jul 7, 2023
Joseph Carlson, relaying another source: Recession will happen
“he is convinced that a recession is coming it is inevitable people wonder where the recession is until it finally hits”
Jul 7, 2023
Joseph Carlson, relaying another source: Recession will happen
“and I think right it might not be this or next quarter story but it's going to be coming in the next 12 months or else we'll just take the history books throw them out we'll tell everybody that mother nature and the business cycle has been repealed and that recessions don't exist”
Jul 7, 2023
Showing the newest 30 of 95.
Recession, crash and housing-crash calls by four finance YouTubers, in their own words, checked against NBER dates, the S&P 500 and Case-Shiller.
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight counts 67 calls about a recession that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the NBER recession indicator on FRED. At one year: 0 correct, 21 incorrect, 5 still open. The other 41 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Against the NBER recession indicator on FRED, using each value as it was first published rather than later revisions, at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.