Said on May 19, 2024, at 9:17 in the video.
“considering that it seems to have a 2 to fouryear lag then it could be another year before the recession sets in”No recession is dated between May 19, 2024 and May 19, 2025. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jun 18, 2024 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Aug 17, 2024 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Nov 15, 2024 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —May 19, 2025 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —May 19, 2027 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —May 18, 2029 | — | — |
No recession is dated between May 19, 2024 and Jun 18, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 19, 2024 and Aug 17, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 19, 2024 and Nov 15, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 19, 2024 and May 19, 2025. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after May 19, 2027.
The window is still open. The result is due after May 18, 2029.
personal consumption and private investment the logic is that it's fundamentally these areas of the economy that drive real economic growth which does make sense the Duncan leading index then takes these specific measures and Compares them to broader GDP growth to get a sense of how much much of that headline number is actual consumption and investment versus Reckless government spending when that ratio starts to fall it suggests a recession is on the horizon according to EPB research the Duncan leading index started rolling over in 2021 considering that it seems to have a 2 to fouryear lag then it could be another year before the recession sets in you might think this isn't useful but it is because the severity of the recession can be forecasted using this indicator considering that the Duncan leading index seems to be in freefall this suggests that the upcoming recession if it occurs could be severe I'll quickly note that the Duncan leading index we showed you here is a modified version created by EPB research the link to their video about it is in the description anyways seeing as leading indicators suggest that a recession is indeed coming all we need now is a few to tell us when
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
