Graham Stephan, relaying Fannie Mae: Recession will happen

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

the air and as of now that is the federal reserve's goal the plane not the glass I want to make that clear in a perfect world the Federal Reserve could slowly increase interest rates inflation would gradually begin to decline and then the economy could shake it off like Taylor Swift but they don't have the best track record of doing that out of the previous 13 rate height Cycles 10 of them have preceded a recession and as Fannie Mae concludes it's a lot more likely that we're going to see what they call a hard Landing right as the FED signals that they're about to be much more aggressive than they have been in the past in fact they even go so far as to say that we believe enough has now changed over the past couple months to expect this eventual downturn by the end of 2023 with inflation continuing to rise the Federal Reserve has all but confirmed that we're likely to see an upcoming 50 basis point rate hike in May and some of the more aggressive fed members even suggest the 75 basis point rate hike to get it out of the way the goal in the short term is to achieve What's called the neutral interest rate which is a rate that neither Sparks nor hurts growth it's just neutral and to make

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