Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise

Said on Feb 27, 2026, at 4:09 in the video.

The window it was checked over

RecessionWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−0.1−0.0500.050.1202320232024202520262027Said on Feb 27, 2026
−0.1−0.0500.050.12023202420252027Said on Feb 27, 2026

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

displaced white-collar workers don't just disappear. Instead, the Salesforce manager making $180,000 loses his job and starts working for Uber at $45,000. From there, multiply that by hundreds of thousands of workers, and all of a sudden, you have a flood of highly qualified people entering the jobs market, competing with one another, pushing down wages for everybody. Like keep in mind, the top 10% of earners drive more than 50% of all consumer spending in the US. So, when those people lose their jobs or see a 50% haircut in income, spending drops dramatically. That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession. And this means we'll see phase four, a private credit collapse. Now, for anyone who's not been following this, more than two and a half trillion dollars have been invested in software priced at valuations that assume that revenue never goes down. Like take Zendesk as an example. It was taken private for 10.2 billion dollars backed by a 5 billion dollar loan. However, once AI started replicating customer service without any humans, their entire business model started becoming obsolete. However, there is a bit of a twist. These companies didn't raise money from

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