Said on Sep 25, 2024, at 16:39 in the video.
“the answer is probably no besides the fact that the FED isn't cutting rates into a crisis like it has in previous Cycles”No recession is dated between Sep 25, 2024 and Mar 24, 2025. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Correct
1 year
Pending
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Correct | — | —Oct 25, 2024 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Correct | — | —Dec 24, 2024 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Correct | — | —Mar 24, 2025 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Sep 25, 2025 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Sep 25, 2027 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Sep 24, 2029 | — | — |
No recession is dated between Sep 25, 2024 and Oct 25, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Sep 25, 2024 and Dec 24, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Sep 25, 2024 and Mar 24, 2025. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after Sep 25, 2025.
The window is still open. The result is due after Sep 25, 2027.
The window is still open. The result is due after Sep 24, 2029.
that this is a future Trump administration's greatest fear so then this brings me to the big question and that's what the fed's interest rate decision means for the economy and the markets again these are two different things in case you missed it it takes up to 2 years for rate cuts to affect the economy so it's safe to to say that fed Cuts won't help much on that front so this begs the question of whether the economy is on the brink of recession especially since the FED has a habit of cutting interest rates just before recessions start the answer is probably no besides the fact that the FED isn't cutting rates into a crisis like it has in previous Cycles fiscal policy is still going strong put differently it's no longer the fed that's doing most of the money printing it's the US government via the treasury department so long as the US government continues spending then it will be very hard for the US economy to fall into recession and it's safe to assume this spending will continue indefinitely this relates to what the fed's interest rate decision means for the markets as I hinted in the introduction the answer here is twofold and it depends on the time frame in the short term rate cuts
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
