Said on Jun 1, 2022, at 0:13 in the video.
“it's all but confirmed that we're very likely to head towards a recession”No recession is dated between Jun 1, 2022 and Jun 1, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jul 1, 2022 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Aug 30, 2022 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Nov 28, 2022 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jun 1, 2023 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —May 31, 2025 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —May 31, 2027 | — | — |
No recession is dated between Jun 1, 2022 and Jul 1, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Jun 1, 2022 and Aug 30, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Jun 1, 2022 and Nov 28, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Jun 1, 2022 and Jun 1, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Jun 1, 2022 and May 31, 2025. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after May 31, 2027.
what's up guys it's Graham here so usually when I see a mistake or something that shouldn't be happening I like to call it out and share my thoughts because investing is something I take extremely seriously and today is no exception during a time where investor sentiment has fallen to extreme fear it's all but confirmed that we're very likely to head towards a recession and unfortunately according to his study the vast majority of investors are already making a huge mistake and quite literally doing the exact opposite of what they should be if they want to make money this comes at the same time that the fednier's another 50 basis point rate hike in both June and July earnings are getting worse with Morgan Stanley warning of another 10 pullback and a wild turkey is attacking people in DC while multiple agencies are in Pursuit and one man protected himself with the rolled up plastic fence yes that is a real story anyway let's
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
