Coin Bureau: Recession — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

Said on May 4, 2022, at 22:25 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“China is probably already in a recession and even if it isn't you'll want to take its official numbers with a truckload of salt”
Watch at 22:25Recession Incoming?! Here's What You NEED To Watch!!
PredictionRecession— not judged: the rule reads only US national figuresChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

RecessionWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−0.200.20.40.60.811.2201920202021202120222023Said on May 4, 2022
−0.500.511.52019202020222023Said on May 4, 2022

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

What was said around it

inflation that is now quite frankly out of control the FED is going to have to try and Reign it in but it's between a rock and a hard place does it risk a recession with severely restrictive monetary policies when a great deal of the price pressure is coming from something that it can't control all I will say is that I'm glad I'm not in Jay Pal's shoes from where I'm standing I think that it will be hard to Stave off a recession Europe seems poised to enter one given that Putin isn't interested in ending the war and wants to settle scores China is probably already in a recession and even if it isn't you'll want to take its official numbers with a truckload of salt and then you have U.S consumer confidence which could likely be further harmed by high inflation low growth and higher interest rates so the main question now appears to be not if we will head into a recession but when recession a not my favorite meme that's for sure anywho that's it for my video sorry if it was on the gloomy side but there it is I am super Keen to get your feedback though so do you think we could be headed into a recession or do you think these fears are overblown I'd love to know so post stem comments down below

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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