Andrei Jikh, relaying Larry Summers: a call with no clear direction

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

and because homeowners are not selling inventory is still extremely low which all just means that the housing market is not correcting in the way that people people were expecting except for in the areas that went up the most during the pandemic that's the simple version so the good news is that the overall economy looks like it's on track to a good recovery and that we will finally get that soft Landing that people said would be impossible but before we get too excited I think we should still be very cautious because Larry Summers the former treasury secretary is warning us that we could still end up in a recession and we might not get that soft Landing because of jobs nobody thinks we can continue indefinitely to create jobs twice as fast as the adult population uh grows that means we're having Tighter and Tighter labor markets and that means an inflationary uh picture and the fed's gonna have to respond uh to that his main argument is that we're on an unsustainable path because we're creating far more jobs than there are people willing to work them and that doesn't sound like such a bad thing why is that bad it sounds like a good thing that we have a lot more jobs than there are people

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