Andrei Jikh: a call with no clear direction

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

people losing jobs 7% believe will get a hard Landing 54% of economists believe that there will be a soft landing and that just means the path we're on right now will will eventually get us to 2% inflation no one will lose their jobs and that's called the soft Landing which 54% believe will happen and then 36% of economists believe there will be no Landing no Landing means we won't really lose any jobs but we also won't get inflation down to 2% where it needs to be anytime soon the economy will just continue growing at some determined rate now if I had to pick one of these three camps today I'd be in the no Landing camp but that can change over time and that's just my very wild guess but the truth is I don't know and even though I can take an educated guess I'd still never try to time the market the CME fed watch tool shows that there's a 96% chance that interest rates will stay the same so higher for longer and that just means that stocks and other assets will have to suffer for a little longer at least until the FED comes in and tells us they're for sure going to lower interest rates which they might they might come in and surprise us because elections are coming soon and even though

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