What was said
“Betas on Poly Market currently price around a 37% chance of MSTR leaving the
MSEI index by year end.”Watch at 12:24Is Michael Saylor EXITING Bitcoin?
PredictionMSTR— a company event
Coin Bureau's predictions, checked
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight has judged 177 of Coin Bureau's calls Correct or Incorrect at one year: 82 correct and 95 incorrect. On the 160 of them with a comparable base rate (how often the called move happened anyway), 46.9% were correct, against a base rate of 49.2%. Every call links to the second it was said.
Hit rate, 1 year
46.3%(177 calls)
82 correct · 95 incorrect (out of 177 checked calls)
After 3 years: 55.6% (90 calls) · on the 56 of 90 calls that have a base rate: 60.7% correct, base rate 47.2%
Above the base rate
−2.3pts
On the 160 of 177 calls with a comparable base rate: 46.9% correct, against a base rate of 49.2%.
Return vs benchmark
−5.3pts
Average over 114 price calls with a benchmark. 95% range −20.4 pts to +9.8 pts.
Predictions tracked
935
1 still open · 205 relayed from someone else · 144 own calls not scored
Hit rate by window
Bar: hit rate · mark: base rateHit rateBase rate
Hit rate by subject, 1 year
Each subject beside its own base rateHit rateBase rate
Market stance
Calls on prices and market crashes, by the direction called.
Up 319 (60%)Down 182 (34%)No direction 27 (5%)
Most called
Instruments and topics, by number of calls
30 days → 1 year
Every direction call with both results, both directions, so neither is picked.
Still correct after 1 year
65.5%(58 calls)
38 of 58 calls that were correct after 30 days
Over the same windows, 58.7% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 51 of 58 calls).
Correct after 30 days, still open at 1 year: 15
| 30 days / 1 year | Correct 1 year | Incorrect 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Correct 30 days | 38 | 20 |
| Incorrect 30 days | 15 | 40 |
Incorrect after 30 days, correct after 1 year: 15 of 55 · Methodology
Calls per month
The last 24 months
UpDownOther
Recent predictions
What was said on the left, what happened on the right.
Filters
Subject
What was said
“While none of us here
have a crystal ball, the likely answer is that ETH finishes the year significantly higher than
the sub $2,000 price we're seeing right now.”Watch at 19:00Ethereum's Comeback Will SHOCK Bitcoin
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days
Entry price (first close after the video)
$1,918
Jul 30, 2026
Price at close
$2,360
Oct 28, 2026
Return
+23.0%
S&P 500 +4.4%
ETH closed at $1,918 on Jul 30, 2026. On Oct 28, 2026 it closed at $2,360, a return of +23.0%. SPY returned +4.4% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Pending
1 year
Pending
What was said
“Conversely, City puts ETH at just $2,240 by the end of the year, citing US crypto
legislation being slower than expected and zero expected ETF inflows.”Watch at 18:48Ethereum's Comeback Will SHOCK Bitcoin
What was said
“Standard Chartered thinks that ETH can hit
$4,000 by year end, driven by Ethereum's dominance in stable coins and tokenized real
world assets.”Watch at 18:44Ethereum's Comeback Will SHOCK Bitcoin
What happened
Relayed
Attributed to Standard Chartered — not scored
What was said
“If you're looking for a catalyst for the crypto market to rally on, this is it.”Watch at 9:08Clarity Act is COMING!! Crypto's Last Hope Has Arrived
Recorded as crypto market, a word for a group: this call is judged on BTC, the stand-in the method assigns to it.
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days
Entry price (first close after the video)
$66,556
Jul 21, 2026
Price at close
$81,938
Oct 19, 2026
Return
+23.1%
S&P 500 +2.7%
BTC closed at $66,556 on Jul 21, 2026. On Oct 19, 2026 it closed at $81,938, a return of +23.1%. SPY returned +2.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Pending
1 year
Pending
What was said
“This is the foundation for a steady bull market as regulatory certainty finally arrives and the”Watch at 9:02Clarity Act is COMING!! Crypto's Last Hope Has Arrived
Recorded as crypto market, a word for a group: this call is judged on BTC, the stand-in the method assigns to it.
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days
Entry price (first close after the video)
$66,556
Jul 21, 2026
Price at close
$81,938
Oct 19, 2026
Return
+23.1%
S&P 500 +2.7%
BTC closed at $66,556 on Jul 21, 2026. On Oct 19, 2026 it closed at $81,938, a return of +23.1%. SPY returned +2.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Pending
1 year
Pending
What was said
“the Chainlink network is only going in one direction, upwards and onwards.”Watch at 14:55Why BIG BANKS Are Betting On Chainlink
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days
Entry price (first close after the video)
$7.92
Jul 11, 2026
Price at close
$12.81
Oct 9, 2026
Return
+61.9%
Bitcoin +29.5%
LINK closed at $7.92 on Jul 11, 2026. On Oct 9, 2026 it closed at $12.81, a return of +61.9%. BTC returned +29.5% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Pending
1 year
Pending
What was said
“a striking number of independent analysts converge on the same window, Q4 2026 as the highest probability bottom.”Watch at 7:09Bitcoin's New Low: When Will It Stop?
Recent videos
The latest videos with predictions in them.
- Is Michael Saylor EXITING Bitcoin?Aug 10, 2026 · 1 call
- Ethereum's Comeback Will SHOCK BitcoinJul 30, 2026 · 3 calls
- Clarity Act is COMING!! Crypto's Last Hope Has ArrivedJul 21, 2026 · 2 calls
- Why BIG BANKS Are Betting On ChainlinkJul 11, 2026 · 1 call
- Bitcoin's New Low: When Will It Stop?Jun 29, 2026 · 1 call
- Crypto Markets Will Go Crazy! US Perps Are HereJun 23, 2026 · 1 call
Blog
Bitcoin predictions for 2025 vs reality: YouTubers' calls
Bitcoin calls three YouTube channels made in 2025, quoted to the second and checked against the price from 30 days to a year, beside base rates.
How accurate are crypto YouTubers? Three channels, checked
Calls by Coin Bureau, Andrei Jikh and Graham Stephan on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and other coins, each hit rate beside its base rate and sample size.
Who said inflation was transitory? YouTubers' calls, checked
The Fed called inflation transitory in 2021. What four finance YouTubers said about it, in their own words, checked against US CPI month by month.
Housing market predictions on YouTube, checked
Housing market calls by finance YouTubers, checked against Case-Shiller and Freddie Mac. House prices are judged on the growth rate, not the price level.
How accurate are YouTubers' Bitcoin price predictions?
How often Bitcoin price predictions by Coin Bureau, Andrei Jikh and Graham Stephan came true at one year, each beside its base rate and sample size.
How often are price targets hit? YouTube targets, checked
Price targets set on finance and crypto YouTube channels, checked against real prices: how many were reached in time, by channel and by distance.
Coin Bureau price predictions: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP checked
Coin Bureau's own calls on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP, quoted to the second and checked against real prices. Base rates and sample sizes shown.
Who predicted the recession? YouTubers' calls, checked
Recession, crash and housing-crash calls by four finance YouTubers, in their own words, checked against NBER dates, the S&P 500 and Case-Shiller.
Do finance YouTubers beat the market? Four channels, checked
How accurate are finance YouTubers? Four channels' calls checked against real prices, base rates and benchmarks, each rate with its sample size.
Ethereum price predictions on YouTube, checked
Ethereum calls and price targets from Coin Bureau and other YouTube channels, quoted to the second and checked against real prices from 30 days to 5 years.
Stock market predictions on YouTube, checked
Stock market predictions from four finance YouTube channels, quoted to the second and checked against real S&P 500 prices from 30 days to 5 years.
Solana price predictions on YouTube, checked
Solana calls and price targets from Coin Bureau's YouTube channel, quoted to the second and checked against real prices from 30 days to 5 years.
Questions people ask
How accurate are Coin Bureau's predictions?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight has judged 177 of Coin Bureau's calls Correct or Incorrect at one year: 82 correct and 95 incorrect. On the 160 of them with a comparable base rate (how often the called move happened anyway), 46.9% were correct, against a base rate of 49.2%. Every call links to the second it was said. After 3 years: 55.6% (90 calls) · on the 56 of 90 calls that have a base rate: 60.7% correct, base rate 47.2%
How are Coin Bureau's predictions checked?
Each one is quoted word for word from a public video and linked to the second it was said. A price call is measured from the first closing price after the video went public, and every call is checked at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
Do Coin Bureau's price calls beat their benchmark?
Return against the benchmark at one year: −5.3 points, the average over 114 price calls with a benchmark (95% range −20.4 to +9.8 points). How the return is measured is on the methodology page.
Is this investment advice?
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.
Hit rates count each distinct call once, however often it was repeated, and leave out calls that could not be checked. Methodology