As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight has judged 70 of Joseph Carlson's calls Correct or Incorrect at one year: 49 correct and 21 incorrect. On the 68 of them with a comparable base rate (how often the called move happened anyway), 69.1% were correct, against a base rate of 61.2%. Every call links to the second it was said.
Hit rate, 1 year
70.0%(70 calls)
49 correct · 21 incorrect (out of 70 checked calls)
After 3 years: 75.6% (41 calls) · on the 40 of 41 calls that have a base rate: 75.0% correct, base rate 67.5%
Above the base rate
+7.9pts
On the 68 of 70 calls with a comparable base rate: 69.1% correct, against a base rate of 61.2%.
Return vs benchmark
−5.1pts
Average over 47 price calls with a benchmark. 95% range −12.6 pts to +2.4 pts.
Predictions tracked
245
0 still open · 19 relayed from someone else · 97 own calls not scored
An AI simulation that answers from Joseph Carlson’s own videos and shows the exact words it relied on.
Unofficial: not made or reviewed by Joseph Carlson
Calls on prices and market crashes, by the direction called.
Instruments and topics, by number of calls
Every direction call with both results, both directions, so neither is picked.
Still correct after 1 year
84.0%(25 calls)
21 of 25 calls that were correct after 30 days
Over the same windows, 75.4% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 25 of 25 calls).
| 30 days / 1 year | Correct 1 year | Incorrect 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Correct 30 days | 21 | 4 |
| Incorrect 30 days | 9 | 13 |
Incorrect after 30 days, correct after 1 year: 9 of 22 · Methodology
The last 24 months
What was said on the left, what happened on the right.
“I think that Amazon's going above $300 per share.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$255.36
Apr 22, 2026
Price at close
$262.45
Oct 19, 2026
Return
+2.8%
AMZN was $255.36 on Apr 22, 2026. The target was $300.00. Between then and Oct 19, 2026 the high was $287.20, so the level was not reached.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Pending
“I believe every single buy that I've done of Meta on every single day at every single price so far will be a profitable buy.”A position the speaker holds: shown, not counted in the record.
“I believe the market's wrong. I think that Tesla continues to be overpriced and Meta continues to be dramatically underpriced.”Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
“Amazon today is worth over $300 per share, but it continually trades at around 230 to 240. Now, it is going up in stock price and I believe that it will continue to over the upcoming year, but I believe investors have a very attractive entry point here today.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$238.18
Jan 15, 2026
Price at close
$247.31
Jul 13, 2026
Total return, dividends included
+3.8%
S&P 500 +8.8%
AMZN closed at $238.18 on Jan 15, 2026. On Jul 13, 2026 it closed at $247.31, a total return of +3.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +8.8%. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Correct
180 days
Correct
1 year
Pending
“My thesis with Amazon is that AWS will continue to accelerate. I believe it will grow 18 to 19% over the next year and that accelerated growth will continue to push the stock higher.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$238.18
Jan 15, 2026
Price at close
$247.31
Jul 13, 2026
Total return, dividends included
+3.8%
S&P 500 +8.8%
AMZN closed at $238.18 on Jan 15, 2026. On Jul 13, 2026 it closed at $247.31, a total return of +3.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +8.8%. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Correct
180 days
Correct
1 year
Pending
“I think that Netflix is a buy today right now. But I want to warn investors that this is a highly volatile company and this could go much lower. I could see on the low end, in fact, I could I could really see it happen where Netflix trades all the way down to around $70 per share.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$88.05
Jan 15, 2026
Price at close
$73.83
Jul 13, 2026
Return
−16.1%
NFLX was $88.05 on Jan 15, 2026. The target was $70.00. Between then and Jul 13, 2026 the low was $70.86, so the level was not reached.
30 days
Partly correct
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Partly correct
1 year
Pending
“Lower interest rates benefit these companies immensely, and interest rates will continue to go lower.”Reading when said
4%
Nov 5, 2025
Reading at close
3.75%
May 4, 2026
Change
−0.25 pp
The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 3.75% on May 4, 2026, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Correct
180 days
Correct
1 year
Pending
“the financials should support massive share price increases over the next 5 years. For me, it's worth buying.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$109.70
Nov 6, 2025
Price at close
$91.02
May 4, 2026
Total return, dividends included
−17.0%
S&P 500 +7.7%
NFLX closed at $109.70 on Nov 6, 2025. On May 4, 2026 it closed at $91.02, a total return of −17.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +7.7%. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Pending
The latest videos with predictions in them.
The Fed called inflation transitory in 2021. What four finance YouTubers said about it, in their own words, checked against US CPI month by month.
Price targets set on finance and crypto YouTube channels, checked against real prices: how many were reached in time, by channel and by distance.
Recession, crash and housing-crash calls by four finance YouTubers, in their own words, checked against NBER dates, the S&P 500 and Case-Shiller.
How accurate are finance YouTubers? Four channels' calls checked against real prices, base rates and benchmarks, each rate with its sample size.
Stock market predictions from four finance YouTube channels, quoted to the second and checked against real S&P 500 prices from 30 days to 5 years.
Joseph Carlson's own stock calls, quoted to the second and checked against the S&P 500 at every window. Hit rate, base rate and sample size shown.
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight has judged 70 of Joseph Carlson's calls Correct or Incorrect at one year: 49 correct and 21 incorrect. On the 68 of them with a comparable base rate (how often the called move happened anyway), 69.1% were correct, against a base rate of 61.2%. Every call links to the second it was said. After 3 years: 75.6% (41 calls) · on the 40 of 41 calls that have a base rate: 75.0% correct, base rate 67.5%
Each one is quoted word for word from a public video and linked to the second it was said. A price call is measured from the first closing price after the video went public, and every call is checked at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
Return against the benchmark at one year: −5.1 points, the average over 47 price calls with a benchmark (95% range −12.6 to +2.4 points). How the return is measured is on the methodology page.
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.