Graham Stephan: Recession will happen

Said on Oct 29, 2018, at 0:39 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“one thing is absolutely 100% inevitable and that is at some point we will enter another recession whether it's next week next month next year five years from now ten years from now it's inevitable at some point it will be happening”
Watch at 0:39How to prepare for the next recession…
PredictionRecessionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

No recession is dated between Oct 29, 2018 and Oct 29, 2019. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

RecessionWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−0.1−0.0500.050.1201520162017201820192020Said on Oct 29, 2018
−0.1−0.0500.050.12015201720182020Said on Oct 29, 2018

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Nov 28, 2018——
90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Jan 27, 2019——
180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Apr 27, 2019——
1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Oct 29, 2019——
3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4Correct——Oct 28, 2021——
5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4Correct——Oct 28, 2023——
Why: 30 days

No recession is dated between Oct 29, 2018 and Nov 28, 2018. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 90 days

No recession is dated between Oct 29, 2018 and Jan 27, 2019. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 180 days

No recession is dated between Oct 29, 2018 and Apr 27, 2019. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 1 year

No recession is dated between Oct 29, 2018 and Oct 29, 2019. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 3 years

The National Bureau of Economic Research dates a recession inside the window (June 2020, July 2020, August 2020). The call was that a recession would occur between Oct 29, 2018 and Oct 28, 2021.

Why: 5 years

The National Bureau of Economic Research dates a recession inside the window (June 2020, July 2020, August 2020). The call was that a recession would occur between Oct 29, 2018 and Oct 28, 2023.

What was said around it

rates and aliens have recently been spotted hovering over Myrtle Beach so it makes sense that people are feeling a little bit more uncertain about their financial stability going forward in the next few years and what many studies show that we cannot accurately and consistently predict when the market will enter a recession one thing is 100% inevitable and that is that I will ask you guys to smash that like button if you haven't already let's get into the video okay but for real but one thing is absolutely 100% inevitable and that is at some point we will enter another recession whether it's next week next month next year five years from now ten years from now it's inevitable at some point it will be happening so this video is really meant to share with you guys how you can prepare now so that when there is another economic downturn it doesn't wipe out everything you've worked so hard for so number one the first thing that you should be doing is paying down any high interest debt now let's be real this is probably something you should be doing regardless of the market conditions if the market is great well chances are you have more money to pay down that high interest debt and if the market

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