Coin Bureau: Recession will happen

Said on Nov 14, 2022, at 17:18 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“this will cause a global recession and possibly one that's deeper than most investors are pricing in”
Watch at 17:18Crypto News: FTX BLOWUP, Market Crash, Contagion & MORE!!
PredictionRecessionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

No recession is dated between Nov 14, 2022 and Nov 14, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

RecessionWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−0.200.20.40.60.811.2201920202021202220232024Said on Nov 14, 2022
−0.500.511.52019202120222024Said on Nov 14, 2022

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Dec 14, 2022——
90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Feb 12, 2023——
180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——May 13, 2023——
1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Nov 14, 2023——
3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4Pending——Nov 13, 2025——
5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4Pending——Nov 13, 2027——
Why: 30 days

No recession is dated between Nov 14, 2022 and Dec 14, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 90 days

No recession is dated between Nov 14, 2022 and Feb 12, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 180 days

No recession is dated between Nov 14, 2022 and May 13, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 1 year

No recession is dated between Nov 14, 2022 and Nov 14, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 3 years

The window is still open. The result is due after Nov 13, 2025.

Why: 5 years

The window is still open. The result is due after Nov 13, 2027.

What was said around it

I suspect this is exactly what will happen over the winter months when energy use around the world spikes and the shortages become acute there's also lots of uncertainty about the United States's strategic petroleum reserves China's zero covert policy and the ongoing war in Ukraine all three of these negative macro factors could theoretically be resolved in the coming months but this seems unlikely for the time being in short inflation is likely to continue and this means that the fed and other central banks will continue raising interest rates this will cause a global recession and possibly one that's deeper than most investors are pricing in this will also cause crypto to crash but create an opportunity for accumulation regardless I reckon it's wise to stack Fiat currencies during times like these so turning to the charts no it's not going to be pleasant we can see that BTC is bleeding hard and that's because it finally broke a massive bear flag that had been forming on the monthly previous zones of support and resistance suggest we could drop to 14 to 15K in the coming weeks before falling to the Final Destination 10 to 12K so buckle up last week's top performing cryptos were trust

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