“the bis sees two possible scenarios that could drag down the global economy the first is a Resurgence in inflation and the second is a hard Landing AKA a recession”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: a call under review
Said on Aug 4, 2024, at 14:27 in the video.
The window it was checked over
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
of the world down with it this ties into the third problem the bis thinks the global economy could face and that's excessive government spending to keep things Rosy during a big election year you'll recall that this could cause a Resurgence in inflation and would also increase existing debt loads and this relates to the fourth problem and that's a decline in productivity which we also touched on earlier as a not so fun fact GDP per capita is declining in many Western countries particularly Canada given these risks the bis sees two possible scenarios that could drag down the global economy the first is a Resurgence in inflation and the second is a hard Landing AKA a recession and as another not so fun fact a spike in commodity prices has historically been followed by a recession this means we could get both now the second part of the report is about monetary policy again but this time the focus is on the future rather than the past funny enough the authors start by recounting how the 21st century has so far featured A Series of Unfortunate Events including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic they note that the pandemic effectively marked the bottom for the decline in interest
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
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