Said on Sep 19, 2023, at 11:04 in the video.
“there is a good chance we could go into recession over the next year”No recession is dated between Sep 19, 2023 and Sep 18, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Oct 19, 2023 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Dec 18, 2023 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Mar 17, 2024 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Sep 18, 2024 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Sep 18, 2026 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Sep 17, 2028 | — | — |
| Stated deadlineR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Dec 31, 2024 | — | — |
No recession is dated between Sep 19, 2023 and Oct 19, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Sep 19, 2023 and Dec 18, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Sep 19, 2023 and Mar 17, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Sep 19, 2023 and Sep 18, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after Sep 18, 2026.
The window is still open. The result is due after Sep 17, 2028.
No recession is dated between Sep 19, 2023 and Dec 31, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
of gasoline starting to rise with the brunt and the WTI Crude that Andrew spoke about a few minutes ago and they're going to continue to go up and that will be reflected in the price of gasoline and therefore in the headline rate so we also have this big challenge of interest rates being higher for longer so we have the mainstream media as well as a lot of informed opinions saying that we're going into recession the end of this year or early next year now of course there's no way of certainty to know what's going to happen but I think they make a sound argument there is a good chance we could go into recession over the next year the thing that they leave out that they never say amongst all of these headlines is it doesn't matter if we go into recession or not does not really matter for the huge majority of investors let me explain what I mean by that when I look at doing analysis on any company we can take for example into it intuit's a new company my portfolio I bought it just this year the company's done really well this year along with a lot of other tech companies and if I bring up into it on qualtrim I can see how recession could potentially impact this company when I look at the
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
