Said on May 2, 2023, at 18:40 in the video.
“the Practical effect of this credit contraction will be a recession which many analysts myself included have been calling for since last summer”No recession is dated between May 2, 2023 and May 1, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jun 1, 2023 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jul 31, 2023 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Oct 29, 2023 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —May 1, 2024 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —May 1, 2026 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Apr 30, 2028 | — | — |
No recession is dated between May 2, 2023 and Jun 1, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 2, 2023 and Jul 31, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 2, 2023 and Oct 29, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 2, 2023 and May 1, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after May 1, 2026.
The window is still open. The result is due after Apr 30, 2028.
March Banks reduced their lending activity by more than 100 billion dollars if you look closely you can hopefully see that this has only happened twice in recent history before the.com crash in 2001 and before the 2008 financial crisis newsflash but the constant creation of money is required for the Fiat Ponzi scheme to work if this credit contraction continues the U.S economy will follow suit and this will eventually be reflected in the markets note that this is exactly what the FED wants because it will bring inflation down the Practical effect of this credit contraction will be a recession which many analysts myself included have been calling for since last summer so far no recession but these things do take time interest rate hikes can take over a year to affect the economy the credit crunch also takes months and it's only just begun based on what I've heard on the many macro podcasts I listen to a recession could start as soon as this summer or as late as next spring some macro analysts also believe the recession won't happen for technical reasons for example unemployment could remain low in stark contrast to real recessions now I can't say I know which way it'll go but I reckon that
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
