Andrei Jikh: Recession will happen

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

down it's happened a lot of times before we get a recession and a part of what leads to higher unemployment are small businesses and right now small businesses are going through a recession of their own because because it's really hard for them to get a loan from the banks right now and the harder it is for them to get a loan the less people they tend to hire and the more they tend to let go and that affects unemployment and that's exactly what we're seeing in this chart also economists say that it takes on average roughly 10 quarters after the first rate increase to put economies into a recession and right now we're on that 10th quarter which means the likelihood of us being in a recession is statistically higher and that's why when you add everything up together everyone is sort of waiting to see what the most important Bank of all will do of course the Federal Reserve the central bank and no one knows what they're going to do until September but right now the market is predicting a 74% chance that they're going to lower interest rates by at least a qu% in September now this doesn't always happen but when the FED starts to Pivot and lower interest rates that usually means the sign of

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