Said on Jul 5, 2022, at 0:01 in the video.
“it's pretty clear that we are heading for a recession now some think it will come in two years others think that it could come next year”No recession is dated between Jul 5, 2022 and Jul 5, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Aug 4, 2022 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Oct 3, 2022 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jan 1, 2023 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jul 5, 2023 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jul 4, 2025 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Jul 4, 2027 | — | — |
No recession is dated between Jul 5, 2022 and Aug 4, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Jul 5, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Jul 5, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Jul 5, 2022 and Jul 5, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Jul 5, 2022 and Jul 4, 2025. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after Jul 4, 2027.
it's pretty clear that we are heading for a recession now some think it will come in two years others think that it could come next year but could we already be there that's exactly what i'll be exploring in this video i'll be taking a look at some really important data that shows that we may already be close to the cliff so don't go anywhere [Music] all right you know heads it's guys cousin manny here with a few home truths for you okay fact number one our kid guy right he ain't no financial advisor you know he's just a bloke on youtube what makes them videos for entertainment and educational purposes yeah so get on the blower to a real financial advisor if you
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
