Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Recession will happen

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

simultaneously project a more gradual increase in the unemployment rate which could last until as late as 2025. that would be a long recession now the Silver Lining is that the FED also projects that housing costs will finally start to come down later this year and they're confident that inflation of all kinds will come down by 2025. this of course assumes that nothing in the financial system will break but it appears they didn't dwell on this possibility instead they focused on the fact that inflation is more likely to rise than fall in the short term and how the fed's response is likely to result in a recession in the U.S later this year this has been the consensus view for months now the only question is how deep this recession will be and how long it will last in the fifth section of the minutes fed officials return to the topic of current economic conditions fed officials seem to imply that the reason why they believe inflation is more likely to increase than decrease is not because of the tight labor market but because of the pandemic and the Ukraine war in case you missed the memo we're still technically in a pandemic and remaining restrictions continue to choke Supply chains the

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.