Joseph Carlson: a call with no clear direction

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

in a recession is very high and so I think the evidence just has to be better than expected and I think those views shift back to softland Tom Le is judging the sentiment of different companies and many Business Leaders are saying hey look we're already in a recessionary territory they have all their different numbers and instruments they can base that off of I think we're in recession if GDP turns negative and if unemployment rates start going up so far we've seen the unemployment rate start to go up but GDP has remained positive so as of right now I don't think we're technically in a recession but I do think we could get there quickly I'm bullish into your end but I'm I'm a little less confident about how we how markets behave into election day and not that I think we're going to have a huge draw down um if we do have a big draw down you know I'd be buying that dip but I I also don't think we can make new highs and then and then see the market last off after election day so I'd rather sort of say things look a lot better after election day the message is simple stay the course and buy the dip if you have a wellth thought out investment strategy of buying either an ETF a basket of

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