Andrei Jikh: a call with no clear direction

Said on Sep 2, 2025, at 12:16 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Watch at 12:16The Buy Now, Broke Later Crisis (This is Bad)
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Not scored

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

The window it was checked over

RecessionWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−0.1−0.0500.050.1202220232024202520252026Said on Sep 2, 2025
−0.1−0.0500.050.12022202420252026Said on Sep 2, 2025

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

What was said around it

this product is ultimately all about. If someone can afford to pay for something outright, they probably wouldn't be bothered to split something into four payments, especially if the thing they're buying is no more than a couple hundred, right? And data released from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in January of this year showed exactly the opposite of what they're saying. Users are typically not strong borrowers. In fact, 2/3 of the people using BNPL services had quote subprime or deep subprime credit scores. The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans. Buy now pay later can make products look a lot more affordable than they actually are. >> Right. It's the psychology of it all that makes it appear as though something is more affordable than it is. That's why Clara reported a 17% increase in credit losses from the year before. They said the losses were actually because they gave out a lot more loans in the first quarter of 2025. So of course they'd have more losses. But if we zoom out and we look at the big picture across the board, it looks pretty bad when you see that

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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