Andrei Jikh, relaying Fannie Mae: Recession will happen

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

since the recent failures of a couple of large Banks this could spark a reduction in in credit you know if banks are becoming much more nervous they've seen a bit of deposit flight in some of these small and Regional Banks this combination of higher borrowing costs and reduced access to credit this double pincer movement if you like on the household and the corporate sects of America is I think what could be really really uh concerning and damaging for the growth prospects and that's exactly why Fannie Mae just put out their thoughts this last weekend over the recession and what they predict which is that a recession is also extremely likely in the second half of this year thanks to credit tightening remember all those failing Regional Banks we've talked about well that's what happens when you party too hard at EDC and then the gravy train stops from Papa pal and now the banks that are left are like maybe I shouldn't party too hard so that I don't end up like my friends that's when they tighten their lending standards they stop lending as much money that's what translates to lower consumer spending which translates to a lower GDP which eventually translates to a recession now so far throughout

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