Said on Aug 4, 2024, at 14:38 in the video.
“as another not so fun fact a spike in commodity prices has historically been followed by a recession this means we could get both”How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
things Rosy during a big election year you'll recall that this could cause a Resurgence in inflation and would also increase existing debt loads and this relates to the fourth problem and that's a decline in productivity which we also touched on earlier as a not so fun fact GDP per capita is declining in many Western countries particularly Canada given these risks the bis sees two possible scenarios that could drag down the global economy the first is a Resurgence in inflation and the second is a hard Landing AKA a recession and as another not so fun fact a spike in commodity prices has historically been followed by a recession this means we could get both now the second part of the report is about monetary policy again but this time the focus is on the future rather than the past funny enough the authors start by recounting how the 21st century has so far featured A Series of Unfortunate Events including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic they note that the pandemic effectively marked the bottom for the decline in interest rates that began after 2008 and could have marked the top for the size of central bank balance sheets for those unaware central banks will buy government
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
