Said on Nov 11, 2025, at 9:37 in the video.
“This suggests that more states could soon face
economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
deceptive is unemployment. On the one hand, unemployment is rising because there's less hiring. On the other hand, though, unemployment is falling because there isn't as many people. The result is a benign unemployment print that makes it look like the economy is doing fine when it's really not under the hood. In fact, many US states are already showing signs of significant weakness. According to recent reports, 22 states in the US are technically in a recession with another 13 reportedly hanging in the balance. This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level. This begs the second question and that's what's really going on with global liquidity. The answer is again a mixed bag, but for different reasons. Whereas economic data is suboptimal because many of its data points deal with stuff that happened in the past, liquidity data is suboptimal because many of its data points deal with stuff that could happen in the future. Put differently, liquidity forecasts make a series of assumptions about central bank, commercial bank, and government actions that may not actually
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction
“This is welcome news that makes it less likely we'll see a recession this year.”
Jun 6, 2025
