Said on Aug 13, 2022, at 15:29 in the video.
“the recession is about to get a lot less technical”No recession is dated between Aug 13, 2022 and Aug 13, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Sep 12, 2022 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Nov 11, 2022 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Feb 9, 2023 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Aug 13, 2023 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Aug 12, 2025 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —Aug 12, 2027 | — | — |
No recession is dated between Aug 13, 2022 and Sep 12, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Aug 13, 2022 and Nov 11, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Aug 13, 2022 and Feb 9, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between Aug 13, 2022 and Aug 13, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after Aug 12, 2025.
The window is still open. The result is due after Aug 12, 2027.
certainly be a global phenomenon and this is for a few reasons for starters central banks around the world have started aggressively raising interest rates in a response to inflation and some of them have been explicit in their intentions to raise rates until inflation comes down regardless of the economic consequences this list includes the federal reserve which put the u.s economy into a technical recession with its rate hikes which it plans to continue until it's confident that inflation is headed for the institution's two percent target and let's just say this means the recession is about to get a lot less technical if you watched our video about how to beat inflation you'll know that there's only so much central banks can do because in many places most of the inflation is coming from supply side factors that are completely outside of their control to be blunt it looks like inflation is going to stick around for a while especially in regions like europe where most countries are expected to see energy prices triple as winter approaches this will force the ecb and other central banks in similar situations to raise interest rates to try and minimize the demand as interest rates continue
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
