Andrei Jikh: Recession will happen

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

at once." And here's what's happened to the stocks of some of these companies. Blue Owl, KKR, Blackstone, Ares, Apollo, Carlyle. These are some of the biggest financial institutions on Earth, and their stock prices are kind of collapsing. Now, all of this is sort of just one crack in the system. There's also the price of oil, which, thanks to the war in Iran, has been exploding. Um for one, you've disrupted global supply chains. This is not just a disruption oil. It's gas, it's fertilizers, it's metals, it's petrochemicals. The list goes on and on. And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession. There's also the $38 trillion spending problem. The government's running a $2 trillion deficit every single year, and they're projecting that if nothing changes, and nothing is changing, the national debt will get to $58 trillion within the next 10 years. The jobs market is also starting to significantly slow down with 92,000 jobs lost in February, and there's been huge downward revisions on past reports. The US lost 92,000 jobs in February. Some economists had been predicting a gain of 60,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%. So,

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