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Andrei Jikh: Recession will happen

Said on Jul 1, 2022, at 2:42 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“on july 28th at 8 30 a.m the bureau of economic analysis will finally release their advance estimate for the second quarter and that's when we'll finally know whether we're in a recession or not but most likely probably yes”
Watch at 2:42The Crypto Default Just Got Worse | Explained
PredictionRecessionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

No recession is dated between Jul 1, 2022 and Jul 1, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

RecessionWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−0.200.20.40.60.811.2201920202021202220222023Said on Jul 1, 2022
−0.500.511.52019202020222023Said on Jul 1, 2022

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Jul 31, 2022——
90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Sep 29, 2022——
180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Dec 28, 2022——
1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Jul 1, 2023——
3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4Incorrect——Jun 30, 2025——
5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4Pending——Jun 30, 2027——
Why: 30 days

No recession is dated between Jul 1, 2022 and Jul 31, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 90 days

No recession is dated between Jul 1, 2022 and Sep 29, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 180 days

No recession is dated between Jul 1, 2022 and Dec 28, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 1 year

No recession is dated between Jul 1, 2022 and Jul 1, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 3 years

No recession is dated between Jul 1, 2022 and Jun 30, 2025. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.

Why: 5 years

The window is still open. The result is due after Jun 30, 2027.

What was said around it

that's what's going on so in today's video i'll explain exactly what's going on what happened and how this will affect us there's a lot to talk about so let's just get right into it hi my name is andre jack hope you're doing well come for the finance and stay for the epic season finale of the economy on fire starring president joe biden directed by papa powell i'm just kidding but it does feel like a sitcom nowadays because we are now 30 days away from the epic season finale because on july 28th at 8 30 a.m the bureau of economic analysis will finally release their advance estimate for the second quarter and that's when we'll finally know whether we're in a recession or not but most likely probably yes now before we get to the season finale though everyone is talking about last season which is the third estimate of the gdp for the first quarter of this year and again everyone is talking about it and here is why see if you can notice the pattern on april 28th we got the advance estimate for q1 at negative 1.4 on may 26th we got the second estimate for q1 at negative 1.5 percent and now on wednesday june 29th we got the third estimate at negative 1.6 so every single time they've given

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen

“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”

Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year

Pending

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise

“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”

Feb 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review

“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”

Dec 24, 2025

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“This suggests that more states could soon face  economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the   US into a recession at the federal level.”

Nov 11, 2025

Not scored

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”

Sep 2, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauRecessionwill fall

“The good   news in this case is that it means liquidity is  likely to continue rising indefinitely and that   it will be very hard to have a recession.”

Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year

Pending