Said on May 4, 2022, at 22:16 in the video.
“from where I'm standing I think that it will be hard to Stave off a recession”No recession is dated between May 4, 2022 and May 4, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jun 3, 2022 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Aug 2, 2022 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Oct 31, 2022 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —May 4, 2023 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —May 3, 2025 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —May 3, 2027 | — | — |
No recession is dated between May 4, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 4, 2022 and Aug 2, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 4, 2022 and Oct 31, 2022. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 4, 2022 and May 4, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 4, 2022 and May 3, 2025. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after May 3, 2027.
exports is likely to be muted and Supply chains are only going to get more strained not only will this have a negative impact on output and consumption but it's also going to add further pressure to inflation inflation that is now quite frankly out of control the FED is going to have to try and Reign it in but it's between a rock and a hard place does it risk a recession with severely restrictive monetary policies when a great deal of the price pressure is coming from something that it can't control all I will say is that I'm glad I'm not in Jay Pal's shoes from where I'm standing I think that it will be hard to Stave off a recession Europe seems poised to enter one given that Putin isn't interested in ending the war and wants to settle scores China is probably already in a recession and even if it isn't you'll want to take its official numbers with a truckload of salt and then you have U.S consumer confidence which could likely be further harmed by high inflation low growth and higher interest rates so the main question now appears to be not if we will head into a recession but when recession a not my favorite meme that's for sure anywho that's it for my video sorry if it was on the
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
