Joseph Carlson, relaying another source: Recession will happen

Said on Jul 7, 2023, at 10:36 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“and I think right it might not be this or next quarter story but it's going to be coming in the next 12 months or else we'll just take the history books throw them out we'll tell everybody that mother nature and the business cycle has been repealed and that recessions don't exist”
Watch at 10:36The Recession Will Happen Within 12 Months
PredictionRecessionwill happenby Jul 1, 2024
What happened
Relayed

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

The window it was checked over

RecessionWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−0.200.20.40.60.811.2202020212022202320232024Said on Jul 7, 2023
−0.500.511.52020202120232024Said on Jul 7, 2023

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

Merrell every day in 2007 where's the recession where's the recession okay yeah well it came in big time in 2008. so yeah the lags this time are longer because the Energizer Bunny called the Biden budget Buster that was actually gave the fiscal stimulus was a gift that kept on giving but you see that's coming to an end and now we're going to see the Full Throttle of these lags that everybody's talking about well where are the lags they're staring Us in the face and I think right it might not be this or next quarter story but it's going to be coming in the next 12 months or else we'll just take the history books throw them out we'll tell everybody that mother nature and the business cycle has been repealed and that recessions don't exist but they always follow the pattern of what the fed's already been doing he is convinced that a recession is coming it is inevitable people wonder where the recession is until it finally hits now I'll admit that this interview is a little bit more spooky than most because he's very bearish and he has a lot of convincing arguments there seems to be more Merit to what he's saying and we know that part of what he's saying is true there is a probability in fact

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