Graham Stephan: Recession will happen

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

video is going to be outdated in a day and people comment this age like milk but again regardless of what you think of the strategy the market has not reacted very kindly which brings me to my second Point recession fears here's the thing anytime there's economic uncertainty companies delay hiring they reduce their spending unemployment begins to rise and that lack of spending shows up as a decline in GDP of which results in a recession after two consecutive quarters now even though this might seem unlikely when you look at the estimates you'll begin to see that there's a solid chance that a recession officially starts this year for instance the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimated that first quarter GDP May decline by an annualized adjusted rate of 2.4% which would be the first contraction since 2022 on top of that JP Morgan put their current recession odds at 40% owing to extreme US policies now of course the count argument to this is that job growth is still strong stocks are still up from where they were a year ago and abnormally cold weather could be partially responsible for a lack of consumer spending although the good news is that if prices do begin to drop they might soon begin

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