Said on May 22, 2023, at 14:10 in the video.
“in my opinion the recession is not canceled yet”No recession is dated between May 22, 2023 and May 21, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Jun 21, 2023 | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Aug 20, 2023 | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —Nov 18, 2023 | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-REC v4 | Incorrect | — | —May 21, 2024 | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —May 21, 2026 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-REC v4 | Pending | — | —May 20, 2028 | — | — |
No recession is dated between May 22, 2023 and Jun 21, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 22, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 22, 2023 and Nov 18, 2023. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
No recession is dated between May 22, 2023 and May 21, 2024. More than 15 months have passed since the window closed, so the period is settled.
The window is still open. The result is due after May 21, 2026.
The window is still open. The result is due after May 20, 2028.
after their final rate increase was only just two months now we've already seen our last interest rate increase in May of this year so sometime later this year we might see interest rates go down the FED is telling us that won't happen but data shows that it actually might now if you're in the market to buy something you might get an opportunity to get that lower rate later this year personally I don't try to time the market which is why I always dollar cost average into it but at least I do try to understand it now I personally love to hear your thoughts about this because in my opinion the recession is not canceled yet in the meantime focus on your own investment journey I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day smash the like button subscribe if you haven't already don't forget to grab your free stocks links are down below go track them automatically with the spreadsheet linked Down Below in my patreon love you thank you so much for watching this video I'd love to see you back here on Monday Friday sometimes a Wednesday see you soon bye-bye
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Andrei JikhRecessionwill happen
“And throughout history, exploding oil prices have almost always come before a major recession.”
Mar 16, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will rise
“That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession.”
Feb 27, 2026
Coin Bureau, relaying JPMorgan: a call under review
“JPMorgan's December outlook assigns a 35% probability to a US and global recession hitting in 2026.”
Dec 24, 2025
Coin Bureaua call under review
“This suggests that more states could soon face economic turmoil and this could in turn tip the US into a recession at the federal level.”
Nov 11, 2025
Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction
“The next recession won't be coming from student loans or subprime mortgages. Now, we know the next recession will come from subprime cheeseburger loans.”
Sep 2, 2025
Coin BureauRecessionwill fall
“The good news in this case is that it means liquidity is likely to continue rising indefinitely and that it will be very hard to have a recession.”
Aug 2, 2025 · after 1 year
