Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Recession will happen

The window it was checked over

NBER-based recession indicator: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

instead the impact of slowing growth less demand throughout our economy me and the word that everyone fears a recession like remember how I mentioned the neutral interest rate well yeah about that achieving that rate has one very negative consequence with the senior federal reserve staff member pointing out that an economic downturn followed every single time the FED matched interest rates with inflation so yes if we're going to be technical about it a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP but some estimates say that we have a 50 chance of confirming a recession in the next 12 months well the stock market implies an 85 chance of this happening although regardless of the odds there are some consequences that are worth pointing out for example the economic policy Institute found that throughout recessions there tends to be a complete contraction throughout our country like number one job losses as companies anticipate lower earnings they'll seek to cut costs and if extra staff isn't needed that leads to higher unemployment two declining wages a study in 2009 found that the average worker saw a six to seven percent income loss for each one percentage Point increase

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