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Market crash

S&P 500 (SPY)Latest $765.10 (Nov 2026)

As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight counts 82 calls about a market crash that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the S&P 500 (SPY). At one year: 3 correct, 4 incorrect, 7 partly correct, 2 still open. The other 66 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.

Own predictions

82

50 said it would happen · 9 said it would not

Correct / incorrect after 1 year

3 Correct 4 Incorrect

plus 7 partly correct and 0 within band. Every call counted, repeats included.

Still open

2

Windows not yet closed

Market crash and the predictions about it

S&P 500 (SPY)Recession (NBER)Said it would happenSaid it would not happenOther calls with a direction
$300$400$500$600$700$800$900202120222023202420252026
$200$400$600$800$1,0002021202320252026
$0$200$400$600$800$1,000201620182020202220242026
$0$200$400$600$800$1,0002016202020232026
$0$200$400$600$800$1,000201520172019202220242026
$0$200$400$600$800$1,0002015201820222026

Market crash calls are measured on the S&P 500 (SPY): a crash is a fall of 20% from the start of the window, a correction 10%, a bubble bursting 30%.

Latest predictions about Market crash

100 predictions in all, newest first: 82 own, 18 relaying someone else's forecast (not scored).

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“Worst-case scenario is that investors get pushed to a point where it all unravels at once. But, given how Washington is closely monitoring the situation, I tend to believe that's probably not going to happen, and most likely this is going to blow over in a few weeks.”
Watch at 12:27Japan’s Currency Crisis Is Now America’s Problem
PredictionMarket crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$757.67

Aug 3, 2026

Total return, dividends included

0.0%

SPY closed at $757.67 on Aug 3, 2026. Between then and Oct 30, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.1%, on Sep 16, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“So basically what we know is that every single time the yen got stronger really fast, it meant that markets somewhere in the world were starting to break.”
Watch at 27:56Japan's Money Is Collapsing
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Not scored

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, who's usually one of the most bullish people on the planet, recently raised his probability of a market meltdown to 35% citing the collision of the Iran oil shock with existing trade pressures.”
Watch at 12:54The AI Bubble Just Collapsed — A Warning For America
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Relayed

Attributed to Ed Yardeni — not scored

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the next major crypto collapse is  unlikely to come from a regulator crackdown. It   is going to come from a regulator that looked away  while a politically connected firm built something   it could not actually support.”
Watch at 15:37Trump Is Purging Crypto Regulators
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored

How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the”
Watch at 15:04It Started: The US Debt Bomb Just Imploded
PredictionMarket crashwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$733.73

May 19, 2026

Total return, dividends included

+6.1%

SPY closed at $733.73 on May 19, 2026. Between then and Aug 14, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.5%, on Jun 10, 2026. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that no crash would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“Or are we watching the slow-motion opening of a 2022 style cascade where the largest concentrated holder of an asset eventually becomes the trigger for the next major leg lower?”
Watch at 11:09BitMine’s Collapse: Ethereum Holders Beware
PredictionMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalby Jul 8, 2026
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“there is an $874 million cluster of leveraged long liquidations sitting just below the current price.”
Watch at 0:57BitMine’s Collapse: Ethereum Holders Beware
PredictionMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem
What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“When the helium shortage inevitably forces chip manufacturers to declare force majeure on their component deliveries, the entire artificial intelligence financing structure begins to unravel.”
Watch at 14:57The Hidden Gas Crisis That Could End the AI Boom
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored

How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Earlier calls

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Market crash will happen (a fall of at least 40%)

“Apparently, the stock market is going to peak in October of 2026. And then shortly after that, we're going to see a 40% decline. Unemployment is going to rise above 10%.”

Feb 27, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“This mass   selling drives down the price. And because the  price is dropping, liquidity dries up. It creates   a feedback loop where the tax itself triggers the  crash it was designed to capture.”

Feb 17, 2026

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“Still, it's reassuring to know that even as we enter a bear market, it's not because of any crypto specific failures.”

Feb 8, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Market crash will not happen

“the general consensus seems to be that we're not likely to see one asset class explode in price or an imminent collapse that's about to wipe everybody out.”

Jan 5, 2026

Relayed

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“In the short term, this  means crypto treasury companies won't crash crypto   prices.”

Nov 26, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“there  are multiple indicators suggesting that the crypto   market has bottomed out and is about to bounce  back, assuming it hasn't already by the time   that you're watching.”

Nov 26, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Andrei Jikha call with no clear direction

“So, there's a possibility that the stress signal shows up in Bitcoin before it shows up in the rest of the market, which means the rest of the market could eventually follow.”

Nov 11, 2025

Not scored

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Market crash will happen

“And this could easily see a trillion dollars trying to squeeze through the same door at the exact same instant. The market would seize up with no buyers for the sellers and no sellers for the buyers.”

Oct 21, 2025

Relayed

Coin Bureaua call under review

“a catastrophic 2017 style 80% crash seems to be   a low probability event.”

Oct 10, 2025

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Market crash will happen

“the billionaire Paul Tudtor Jones says that this is now reminiscent of exactly what happened right before the 2001.com crash.”

Oct 7, 2025

Relayed

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“The strategies  being used, particularly the reliance on dilutive   pipes and leveraged balance sheets, are creating  a fragile system that could amplify the next   market crash.”

Sep 20, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanMarket crashwill happen

“at some point in the future, the market will drop again. We just don't know when.”

Aug 19, 2025 · after 1 year

Incorrect+21.9%

Graham StephanMarket crashwill happen

“I promise at some point there will be another stock market drop and bare market.”

Aug 19, 2025 · after 1 year

Incorrect+21.9%

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Market crash will not happen

“Some   would say we're headed for a similar scenario  with another financial crisis possibly around   the corner.”

Jul 31, 2025

Relayed

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“this massive misallocation of capital will  inevitably lead to a serious financial or societal   crisis that will finally force the EU to move  away from its increasingly Soviet style system   and back towards the free markets.”

Jul 19, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Market crash will happen

“The result won't be a  sudden market crash, but a slow grinding decline   in asset prices, a bare market engineered not by  panic, but by regulatory design.”

Jul 18, 2025

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Market crash will not happen

“Unlike  past crisis, Napia doesn't predict a dramatic   sudden crash like in 2008. Instead, he expects  a so-called market meltup.”

Jul 18, 2025

Relayed

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“Short-term, I would expect to see a lot more volatility. Flat out, investors hate this type of uncertainty. So, I wouldn't be surprised if we see more market turmoil.”

Jun 6, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“we are about to see a massive   breakout in DeFi activity and that includes  borrowing with the SEC ready to give the all clear   the rally will likely be of historic proportions  but the crash likely will be as well”

May 31, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“the result   could be the exact same thing a massive meltup  in crypto prices followed by a meltdown when   someone starts selling and collateral starts being  liquidated left and right”

May 31, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“this  could result in a crypto boom bigger than anyone   could ever have imagined but the resulting  bust could take us back to a very dark time   in financial history”

May 31, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Coin BureauMarket crash— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“recent changes at the SEC foreshadow significant  changes to US crypto regulations which could not   only result in enormous inflows into crypto but  could also bring about a 1929 style market crash”

May 31, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Showing the newest 30 of 100.

See all 100 predictions

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Questions people ask

What have finance YouTubers predicted about a market crash?

As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight counts 82 calls about a market crash that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the S&P 500 (SPY). At one year: 3 correct, 4 incorrect, 7 partly correct, 2 still open. The other 66 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.

What counts as a stock market crash?

There is no official size for a crash. Callsight uses a fall of at least 20% in the S&P 500, the level usually taken to mark a bear market, measured from its highest close after the call. When the speaker named a bigger fall, that size is used instead. Half the fall is Partly correct.

What is the difference between a market correction and a crash?

They differ in how far the market falls. Callsight judges a correction call at a fall of 10% and a crash call at 20%, both measured on the S&P 500 from its highest close after the call. A fall of 15% makes a correction call Correct and a crash call Partly correct.

How is a call about a market crash checked?

Against the S&P 500 (SPY), using each value as it was first published rather than later revisions, at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.

Is this investment advice?

No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.

Every count on this page includes repeats: a call made again in a later video counts again, so the counts can differ from a channel's record, which counts each distinct call once.