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Graham Stephan: Market crash will happen

Said on Feb 22, 2021, at 0:41 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“i promise you at some point the market is going to crash again there is going to be another bear market there is going to be another recession”
Watch at 0:41The Next Market Crash - 7 Ways To Make Money
PredictionMarket crashwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Partly correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$387.50

Feb 23, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+12.3%

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. Between then and Feb 22, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −10.1%, on Feb 22, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Partly correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$387.50Feb 23, 2021—Mar 24, 2021+0.3%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$387.50Feb 23, 2021—May 21, 2021+7.4%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$387.50Feb 23, 2021—Aug 20, 2021+15.2%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Partly correct$387.50Feb 23, 2021—Feb 22, 2022+12.3%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$387.50Feb 23, 2021—Feb 22, 2024+36.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$387.50Feb 23, 2021—Feb 20, 2026+90.6%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. Between then and Mar 24, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −3.8%, on Mar 4, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. Between then and May 21, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.0%, on May 12, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. Between then and Aug 20, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.0%, on May 12, 2021. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. Between then and Feb 22, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −10.1%, on Feb 22, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. Between then and Feb 22, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. Between then and Feb 20, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 20.0% counts as a crash, and at least 10.0% as partial. The call was that a crash would come.

What was said around it

market is the most expensive it's ever been in history and even the search term stock market bubble has increased a hundred percent to its highest level ever recorded since 2004 meaning that people now more than ever are concerned that prices are rising too much too fast so given all the nervousness around this let's talk about exactly what's going on the likelihood of another crash coming sometime soon and then what you could do about it so that you're best prepared ahead of time and can make the most of the situation because i promise you at some point the market is going to crash again there is going to be another bear market there is going to be another recession and even though we can't time it perfectly it's important to know exactly what to expect so that when it does happen you're not going to be caught off guard and you're going to be in the best position possible to make boatloads of money do people even say boatloads anymore i might be dating myself here i'm getting too old for this but really quick before we begin i want to thank our video sponsor today the like button every 60 seconds a like button goes without being smashed but you could help for the low cost of free you could

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Not scored

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Correct so far · 90 days+6.1%

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May 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable